


Sequenced Circumstances

by AppalachianApologies



Category: Criminal Minds (US TV)
Genre: Character Study, Constellations, Gen, Geniuses, He's like hyperintelligent, It's basically in the mind of Spencer Reid, Lots of the stuff inside spencer's brain, One might call this a character study? i'm not sure, Spencer Reid is a Genius, Stars, Thirty seconds of Spencer time took me over two hours lmao, but i'm also bad at math so that checks out, genius
Language: English
Status: Completed
Published: 2020-11-17
Updated: 2020-11-17
Packaged: 2021-03-10 05:55:18
Rating: General Audiences
Warnings: No Archive Warnings Apply
Chapters: 1
Words: 1,339
Publisher: archiveofourown.org
Story URL: https://archiveofourown.org/works/27608629
Author URL: https://archiveofourown.org/users/AppalachianApologies/pseuds/AppalachianApologies
Summary: A quick look into the genius mind of Doctor Spencer Reid, solving a case in record time.
Comments: 22
Kudos: 95





	Sequenced Circumstances

**Author's Note:**

> uhhh okay so the entirety of this fic is basically in the span of thirty seconds, and it took me around two and a half hours to write xD I am far, far from a genius, and although this was a fun exercise, chances are, it'll be awhile until I do something like this again haha
> 
> I'd like to note that everything in this fic is true. I used nine different sources, and had Google Maps pulled up during all of it. The math is real, and the locations are real places. Which brings me to: Many of these locations are residential houses that I got from the math. The victims in this story have nothing to do with the actual people who may or may not be living in some of these homes. If there is any connection to the real life houses and people, it's purely coincidental.
> 
> Please Enjoy! :D

It only took Spencer a few seconds after looking at the map. “The unsub is choosing locations based on the stars and their corresponding constellations.”

_ Constellations are specific groupings of stars, and many historians believe that constellations began being charted in prehistory times. Mapping stars began before any type of language did. _

Frowning, Hotch questions, “Do we know where the unsub is going to strike next?”

_ There are eighty eight modern constellations, which were universally approved in 1922 from the International Astronomical Union. In 1928 the union adopted a charting strategy that could be used across the globe, regardless of seasons or hemispheres. _

_ The unsub is most likely charting stars based off of the modern constellations. Today is February 23rd, and the unsub is located in the general area of Phoenix, Arizona. Tonight after the sun has set but before civil twilight a band of light will be visible- a cluster of stars. The unsub isn’t using that to kill. _

_ In February of the Northern Hemisphere, the following constellations are visible in the night sky: Auriga, Camelopardalis, Gemini, and Monoceros. In the southern hemisphere the following constellations are visible in February: Canis Major, Columba, and Puppis. The southern hemisphere constellations can be disregarded. _

After clearing his throat, Spencer reports, “The unsub is following either Auriga, Camelopardalis, Gemini, or Monoceros. They only kill on even days, which means there isn’t going to be a body today. However, on the night before, the unsub plans out the kill, which means that it’s entirely possible for us to find them tonight.”

_ The majority of unsubs are caught after one week has passed from when the BAU goes to the location. If the team is able to catch the unsub tonight, it will be part of the 23.67% of unsubs caught within the first week, which will save on average 2.89 victims, rounded to 3 victims. _

_ Camelopardalis is the largest constellation that the unsub could be following, ranging from 757 square degrees when viewed from Earth. Sizing down, this would translate to 30 square miles. This means that the unsub is mapping out their kills with a ratio of 0.0396301188903 disregarding the degree that occurs when viewing the night sky from a planet which is not flat. _

_ The unsub is killing within a radius of at least 30 miles from the center of the Phoenix airport, which means that the following constellations could be the one the unsub is using: Auriga, Camelopardalis, Gemini, or Monoceros. That doesn’t narrow any of them down. _

_ If the unsub is only using popular constellations, then there’s a small chance that it’s Camelopardalis. Although the constellation is large, it’s difficult to see because the brightest visual magnitude of a star in the constellation is less than 3. The brightest star in the visible winter sky has a magnitude of -1.44. _

_ Stellar magnitude is calculated using the following formula:  _ _ L = Area x flux = 4 π R^ _ _ 2 _ _ σ( _ _ SB) _ _ T^ _ _ 4  _ _ but that’s not useful for this case. _

_ The unsub could be using a sub constellation, such as Kemble’s Cascade, which is a piece of Camelopardalis. However that’s unlikely, given the amount of stars that are being used. There wouldn’t be a pattern with only four victims when there’s a total of twenty stars. _

_ Check the map. _

_ That constellation doesn’t make sense using the scaled down ratio of 0.0396301188903 that the unsub is using in the greater Phoenix area. _

_ In the winter sky, even in late February, Auriga is visible, more so than in the summer, which makes it a strong contender to be the constellation the unsub is using. Auriga is also called Charioteer, because of its shape, resembling a helmet of a charioteer.  _

_ For novice star gazers, Auriga is a popular one to find in winter because of how easily it’s spotted. It has a general area of 657 square degrees, which translates to 26.036989 square miles in Phoenix, using the same scaling as the unsub. _

_ Check the map. _

_ All of the victims were found within a radius of 26.03689 miles, meaning that Auriga could be the constellation that the unsub is using as a pattern to kill. So far, the victim that lived the furthest away from the epicenter was 22.3 miles. _

_ Change the radius of kills to 22.3 miles. Auriga would fit perfectly. _

“The unsub is killing in the pattern of Auriga, a constellation seen in winter in the Northern Hemisphere.” Spencer replies, squinting at the map. “They’ve already killed in four places- four stars.”

With a frown, Hotch questions, “What’s the fifth star? Where would it be in Phoenix?”

_ There are ten approved stars according to the International Astronomical Union in Auriga. The furthest away is barely considered to be part of the constellation, and is simply known as the “Delta” star. _

_ Using the conversion from square degrees to square miles in Phoenix, 13032 West Modesto Drive would correspond to 562.7033 square degrees away from the epicenter. _

_ Check the map. _

_ The epicenter is The Phoenix International Airport. Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport was bought by the City of Phoenix in 1935 and has on average an economic impact of 106 Million Dollars per day. That’s not important, back to the map. _

_ The most famous star in Auriga is Capella, which is 275.0433 square degrees away from the center, and using the scale conversion means that the kill location should be approximately 10.9 miles away from the center. _

_ Check the map. _

_ Victim number two was killed in 2058 W Stella Lane, which matches up. That victim was Capella, the brightest star in the constellation. Could that have been an impact? Not important, the location for the next victim takes priority. _

_ The next star in Auriga is Almaaz, which is 129 square degrees away from the center of the constellation. Using the conversion scale, the next kill should be approximately 8.7 miles away. _

_ Check the map. _

_ Victim number three was killed inside of the Phoenix Mountains Preserve. Because it was inside of the national park, the Rangers weren’t able to give an exact location. They said it was near the West edge. That includes 8.55 to 8.8 miles away. 8.7 Miles is within that range. Victim number three represented the Almaaz star. _

_ If the unsub follows their pattern the fourth victim should’ve been killed 210.6983 square degrees away from the center of the constellation. This means that on Earth, in Phoenix, the kill should’ve taken place approximately 8.35 miles from the airport. _

_ Check the map. _

_ The fourth victim was killed at 6530 N Praying Monk Road, 8.35 miles away from the airport. This means that victim number four represented the star Sadatoni, or Haedus I. The history of Sadatoni is particularly strange, because- _

_ Not important. Finding the fifth victim before tomorrow night is important. _

_ If the unsub continues to follow their pattern by tracing Auriga clockwise, then the next star would be 186.2967 square degrees away from the center of Auriga. Using the conversion, this means that the fifth victim would live approximately 7.4 miles away from the Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, where the first flight landed in 1928, but that’s not important. _

_ 7.4 Miles away from the airport, while following the constellation of Auriga, would put the fifth victim at 3801 E Solano Drive, representing Haedus II.  _

Spencer takes a step back from the map. “The fifth victim will be killed tomorrow at their place of residence. All of the victims have nothing in common. It’s just where they happened to be living.”

“Where do they live?” Hotch questions.

“At 3801 E Solano Drive. The location represents the star, Haedus II. The victims themselves have nothing to do with the murders.” Spencer points out.

Nodding in comprehension, Hotch sets a hand on Spencer’s shoulder. “Good job, Reid.”

With an awkward smile, Spencer replies, “I’m just glad I was able to figure it out.”

“Yeah,” Hotch chuckles, “And in barely thirty seconds, too.”

**Author's Note:**

> Wondering what the behind the scenes math bits are and wondering what sources I used? I made a tumblr post explaining all of it, so please take a look [here!](https://appalachianapologies.tumblr.com/post/635069848752455680/sequenced-circumstances-explained)
> 
> I have a lot of fun meeting and talking with you all, and if you'd like to join in, you can always stop by my [tumblr!](https://www.tumblr.com/blog/appalachianapologies) (AppalachianApologies)
> 
> I love you all very much, and I hope you all are doing okay. If you find yourself in a bad or scary situation, here are some hotlines (Please keep in mind that the written out numbers are US hotlines)
> 
> National Suicide Hotline: 1-800-273-8255  
> National Sexual Assault Hotline: 1-800-656-4673  
> National Domestic Violence Hotline: 1-800-799-7233
> 
> If you don't live in America and need someone to talk to, here's a list of [international hotlines.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_suicide_crisis_lines)  
> You are not alone, and I love you all <3
> 
> All the love to you all, and I'll see you tomorrow for chapter eight of Charcoal! (also i'm gonna go take a shower and wash the 'math' off of me haha)


End file.
